Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as rates moved higher, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index fell 10.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 11, reversing much of the prior week’s gain. “Mortgage rates rose last week following higher Treasury yields, which weighed on both purchase and refinance demand,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Refinance activity declined, and purchase applications fell to their lowest level since May.” Refinance applications fell 7% from the previous week but remain roughly 25% higher than the same week one year ago. Purchase applications declined 12% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unadjusted index increased 11% week-over-week and is still about 13% higher than 2024 levels, reflecting a modest improvement in year-over-year comparisons despite recent volatility. The average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.82%—up slightly from the prior week—while points held steady or edged lower depending on loan type. Mortgage Rate Summary: Loan Type Rate Change Points Change 30yr Fixed 6.82% +0.03 0.62 0.00 15yr Fixed 6.11% +0.05 0.66 −0.01 Jumbo 30yr 6.81% +0.03 0.39 −0.01 FHA 6.55% +0.02 0.74 −0.02 5/1 ARM 6.01% +0.02 0.58 −0.02
Builders are placing their better days in the future according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo's latest Housing Market Index (HMI). Buoyed by longer-run expectations, the headline builder confidence index rose one point to 33, but remained deep in pessimistic territory, marking the 15th consecutive month below the key threshold of 50. Underlying components of the index were mixed: Current sales conditions rose one point to 36 Sales expectations for the next 6 months climbed 3 points to 43 Buyer traffic slipped one point to 20 High mortgage rates, elevated construction costs, and persistent affordability challenges continue to weigh on builder confidence. In response, many builders are offering concessions to attract hesitant buyers. The share of builders reporting price reductions rose to 38% in July, the highest since NAHB began monthly tracking in 2022. The average price cut remained at 5%. Sales incentives remained widespread as well, with 62% of builders reporting some form of incentive—unchanged from June. While the small uptick in sentiment may reflect cautious optimism in certain segments of the market, the overall outlook remains subdued. Builders continue to face significant headwinds, and buyer traffic is still near post-pandemic lows.
The latest Residential Construction report from the Census Bureau showed a mixed bag for June, with a modest gain in overall housing starts driven by a rebound in multifamily construction, while single-family activity continued to decline. Building permits were essentially flat, suggesting a pause in the momentum seen earlier this year. As usual, the market focuses most on building permits and housing starts, with the latter representing the beginning of actual construction activity. Total starts rose 5.2% to an annual pace of 1.321 million, up from a revised 1.256 million in May. The increase was entirely due to a sharp rebound in multifamily starts, which surged from 316k to 414k—more than reversing the previous month’s drop. In contrast, single-family starts fell 4.4% to 883k, marking the lowest level in 11 months. Building permits—a forward-looking indicator—were nearly unchanged, inching up from 1.393 million to 1.397 million. That masked a 3.7% decline in single-family permits, which dropped to 866k, while multifamily permits rose modestly from 444k to 478k. Meanwhile, housing completions fell sharply, down 13.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.314 million. That included a 12.5% decline in single-family completions, which dropped from 1.038 million to 908k.
Mortgage application activity bounced higher last week following a drop in rates to the lowest levels in 3 months. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey showed a 9.4% increase in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending July 4, 2025. The results included an adjustment for the July 4th holiday. “Mortgage rates moved lower last week, with the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to 6.77 percent, its lowest level in three months,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “After adjusting for the July 4th holiday, purchase applications increased to the highest level of activity since February 2023 and remained above year-ago levels. Homebuyer demand is being fueled by increasing housing inventory and moderating home-price growth.” Refinance applications were up 9% from the previous week and are now 56% higher than the same week last year, with VA refinances jumping 32%. Purchase applications rose 9% on a seasonally adjusted basis and are now 25% higher than last year. The average loan size for purchase apps dropped to $432,600, the lowest since January. The average 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.77% while most point levels shifted only modestly. Jumbo rates posted a larger drop, but points increased more noticeably. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.77% (−0.02) | Points: 0.62 (unch) 15yr Fixed: 6.04% (−0.02) | Points: 0.63 (−0.04) Jumbo 30yr: 6.69% (−0.09) | Points: 0.65 (+0.25) FHA: 6.51% (−0.02) | Points: 0.80 (+0.04) 5/1 ARM: 6.01% (+0.02) | Points: 0.73 (+0.13)
Mortgage application activity moved higher last week as rates declined to the lowest levels since April, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index rose 2.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 27. Results were not adjusted for holidays this time around, but the previous week had included a Juneteenth adjustment. “Mortgage rates were lower across all loan types last week, with the 30-year fixed rate declining to its lowest level since April at 6.79 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “This decline prompted an increase in refinance applications, driven by a 10 percent increase in conventional applications and a 22 percent increase in VA refinance applications.” Refinance applications rose 7% from the prior week and are now 40% higher than the same week last year. Purchase applications were flat, rising just 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. However, the unadjusted index rose 10% week-over-week and remains 16% higher than 2024 levels, continuing a trend of modest year-over-year gains despite short-term stagnation. The average 30-year fixed rate declined to 6.79%—the lowest since April—while points moved slightly lower across most loan types. Mortgage Rate Summary: Loan Type Rate Change Points Change 30yr Fixed 6.79% −0.09 0.62 −0.01 15yr Fixed 6.06% −0.05 0.67 −0.07 Jumbo 30yr 6.78% −0.10 0.40 −0.20 FHA 6.53% −0.06 0.76 −0.09 5/1 ARM 5.99% −0.17 0.60 +0.06
The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has remained rangebound for more than two years, constrained by affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates. This week’s update showed a modest improvement, but the broader story hasn’t changed. Pending home sales rose by 1.8% in May, marking the first increase since February. The index is now 1.1% higher than a year ago , but still well below pre-2022 norms. Zooming out, contract activity remains stuck in a narrow band. The index hasn’t been above 80 since the summer of 2022 and continues to reflect a sluggish, rate-constrained housing market. “Consistent job gains and rising wages are modestly helping the housing market,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Hourly wages are increasing faster than home prices. However, mortgage rate fluctuations are the primary driver of homebuying decisions and impact housing affordability more than wage gains.” Here’s how the month-over-month change broke down by region: Northeast: +2.1% Midwest: +0.3% South: +1.0% West: +6.0%
New Home Sales fell sharply in May according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD. After a brief surge in April, the seasonally adjusted annual pace dropped to 623,000—down 13.7% from April's revised reading of 722,000 and 6.3% lower than the same month last year. When last month's data originally came out, the annual pace of 743k was the highest in several years. The drop brings sales activity back in line with late 2023 levels. While it’s not uncommon to see volatility in this data series, the sharp monthly decline is still notable, especially considering the downward revision to April’s numbers. Inventory rose modestly to 507,000 homes, which at the current sales pace represents a 9.8-month supply—up from 8.3 months in April and 8.5 months a year ago. That’s the highest months’ supply figure since late 2022, and one of the highest in more than a decade. The median price rose to $426,600 in May, a 3.7% increase from April and 3.0% higher than a year ago. The average price rose 2.2% on the month to $522,200, up 4.6% year-over-year. Both measures are now back near the recent highs seen in late 2022. Regionally, the decline in sales was led by the South and West, while the Northeast and Midwest held steadier by comparison. Northeast : 27k (up 4k from April) Midwest : 82k (down 2k from April) South : 365k (down 113k from April) West : 149k (down 9k from April)
Mortgage application activity moved slightly higher last week despite a modest uptick in rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index rose 1.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 20, with a small gain in refis offsetting a minor decline in purchase activity. Results included an adjustment for the Juneteenth holiday. “Applications increased slightly overall driven by FHA refinances, but conventional applications saw declines over the week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The average loan size for purchase applications declined to the lowest level since January, driven by decreasing conventional purchase loan sizes.” Refinance applications were up 3% from the prior week and are now 29% higher than the same week last year. Purchase applications slipped 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis but remain 12% above 2024 levels. The drop followed the previous week’s minor rebound, offering little evidence of sustained momentum in purchase demand. The average 30-year fixed rate rose slightly to 6.88% while points declined slightly across most loan types. Mortgage Rate Summary:
Two months ago, existing home sales reached the highest levels in a year according to the National Association of Realtors. Last month’s report showed a noticeable dip to 5‑month lows. The latest data, released June 23, is more subdued. Sales held near 6‑month lows in May, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million—essentially unchanged from April with a modest 0.8% month‑over‑month increase, and still down 0.7% year‑over‑year As has been and continues to be the case, zooming out on the same chart results in an entirely different impression of the home resale market. Sales levels have hovered near 75% of pre-pandemic norms for three years now. “Home sales refuse to break out,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Inventory is up, and home prices are showing further gains. The market is at an interesting point with rising supply and increasing demand.” Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, May 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 500,000 +4.2% $513,300 +7.1% Midwest 990,000 +2.1% $326,400 +3.4% South 1.84 million +1.7% $367,800 -0.7% West 700,000 -5.4% $633,500 +0.5%
Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller home price indices were released today. While the data collection time frame is from April, they each suggest a similar shift is underway when adjusting for seasonality. Specifically, if we ignore seasonality, prices rose. If we don't, they were down 0.4% from March. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) April: −0.4%; March was revised from −0.1% to 0.0% YoY: +3.0% from April 2024 to April 2025 Monthly figures varied regionally: the West South Central and South Atlantic divisions posted the steepest falls (−1.3%), while the Middle Atlantic rose +1.2%. All nine divisions remain positive YoY (ranging from +0.5% to +7.4%). The 0.4% drop is in line with slower spring momentum—not drastic, but a continued cooling from prior gains. The upward revision in March helps to offset April's declines to some extent. Case‑Shiller National Index (unadjusted) YoY: +2.7% in April, down from +3.4% in March MoM (raw): +0.6% MoM (seasonally adjusted): −0.4%
