The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has remained rangebound for more than two years, constrained by affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates. This week’s update showed a modest improvement, but the broader story hasn’t changed. Pending home sales rose by 1.8% in May, marking the first increase since February. The index is now 1.1% higher than a year ago , but still well below pre-2022 norms. Zooming out, contract activity remains stuck in a narrow band. The index hasn’t been above 80 since the summer of 2022 and continues to reflect a sluggish, rate-constrained housing market. “Consistent job gains and rising wages are modestly helping the housing market,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Hourly wages are increasing faster than home prices. However, mortgage rate fluctuations are the primary driver of homebuying decisions and impact housing affordability more than wage gains.” Here’s how the month-over-month change broke down by region: Northeast: +2.1% Midwest: +0.3% South: +1.0% West: +6.0%
New Home Sales fell sharply in May according to the latest report from the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD. After a brief surge in April, the seasonally adjusted annual pace dropped to 623,000—down 13.7% from April's revised reading of 722,000 and 6.3% lower than the same month last year. When last month's data originally came out, the annual pace of 743k was the highest in several years. The drop brings sales activity back in line with late 2023 levels. While it’s not uncommon to see volatility in this data series, the sharp monthly decline is still notable, especially considering the downward revision to April’s numbers. Inventory rose modestly to 507,000 homes, which at the current sales pace represents a 9.8-month supply—up from 8.3 months in April and 8.5 months a year ago. That’s the highest months’ supply figure since late 2022, and one of the highest in more than a decade. The median price rose to $426,600 in May, a 3.7% increase from April and 3.0% higher than a year ago. The average price rose 2.2% on the month to $522,200, up 4.6% year-over-year. Both measures are now back near the recent highs seen in late 2022. Regionally, the decline in sales was led by the South and West, while the Northeast and Midwest held steadier by comparison. Northeast : 27k (up 4k from April) Midwest : 82k (down 2k from April) South : 365k (down 113k from April) West : 149k (down 9k from April)
Mortgage application activity moved slightly higher last week despite a modest uptick in rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index rose 1.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 20, with a small gain in refis offsetting a minor decline in purchase activity. Results included an adjustment for the Juneteenth holiday. “Applications increased slightly overall driven by FHA refinances, but conventional applications saw declines over the week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The average loan size for purchase applications declined to the lowest level since January, driven by decreasing conventional purchase loan sizes.” Refinance applications were up 3% from the prior week and are now 29% higher than the same week last year. Purchase applications slipped 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis but remain 12% above 2024 levels. The drop followed the previous week’s minor rebound, offering little evidence of sustained momentum in purchase demand. The average 30-year fixed rate rose slightly to 6.88% while points declined slightly across most loan types. Mortgage Rate Summary:
Two months ago, existing home sales reached the highest levels in a year according to the National Association of Realtors. Last month’s report showed a noticeable dip to 5‑month lows. The latest data, released June 23, is more subdued. Sales held near 6‑month lows in May, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million—essentially unchanged from April with a modest 0.8% month‑over‑month increase, and still down 0.7% year‑over‑year As has been and continues to be the case, zooming out on the same chart results in an entirely different impression of the home resale market. Sales levels have hovered near 75% of pre-pandemic norms for three years now. “Home sales refuse to break out,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Inventory is up, and home prices are showing further gains. The market is at an interesting point with rising supply and increasing demand.” Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, May 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 500,000 +4.2% $513,300 +7.1% Midwest 990,000 +2.1% $326,400 +3.4% South 1.84 million +1.7% $367,800 -0.7% West 700,000 -5.4% $633,500 +0.5%
Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller home price indices were released today. While the data collection time frame is from April, they each suggest a similar shift is underway when adjusting for seasonality. Specifically, if we ignore seasonality, prices rose. If we don't, they were down 0.4% from March. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) April: −0.4%; March was revised from −0.1% to 0.0% YoY: +3.0% from April 2024 to April 2025 Monthly figures varied regionally: the West South Central and South Atlantic divisions posted the steepest falls (−1.3%), while the Middle Atlantic rose +1.2%. All nine divisions remain positive YoY (ranging from +0.5% to +7.4%). The 0.4% drop is in line with slower spring momentum—not drastic, but a continued cooling from prior gains. The upward revision in March helps to offset April's declines to some extent. Case‑Shiller National Index (unadjusted) YoY: +2.7% in April, down from +3.4% in March MoM (raw): +0.6% MoM (seasonally adjusted): −0.4%
The latest Residential Construction report from the Census Bureau showed a noticeable drop in overall housing starts in May, though single-family activity managed a small gain. Building permits also declined, continuing a trend of slight cooling in new construction momentum. As usual, the market focuses most on building permits and housing starts , with the latter representing the beginning of actual construction activity. Total starts fell nearly 10% to an annual pace of 1.256 million , down from 1.392 million in April. The decline was almost entirely due to a sharp drop in multifamily starts , which fell from 420k to 316k , the lowest level in over a year. In contrast, single-family starts edged up slightly to 924k from 920k . Building permits—a forward-looking indicator—also declined, dropping 2% from 1.422 million to 1.393 million . That included a 2.7% decline in single-family permits and a moderate slowdown in multifamily authorizations.
Mortgage application activity declined modestly last week despite a drop in rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index fell 2.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 13, with both purchase and refinance activity posting week-over-week declines. “Even with lower average mortgage rates, applications declined over the week as ongoing economic uncertainty weighed on potential homebuyers’ purchase decisions,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Refinance applications were down 2% from the prior week but remain 25% higher than the same week last year. Purchase applications fell 3% on a seasonally adjusted basis but are still 14% above 2024 levels. These declines come after a brief rebound in early June and underscore the fragile sentiment in the housing market. The average 30-year fixed rate decreased to 6.84%, the lowest level since April, with modest declines across most other loan types as well. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.84% (−0.09) | Points: 0.66 (+0.02) 15yr Fixed: 6.14% (−0.02) | Points: 0.70 (+0.04) Jumbo 30yr: 6.81% (−0.12) | Points: 0.63 (no change) FHA: 6.57% (−0.03) | Points: 0.90 (+0.02) 5/1 ARM: 6.10% (−0.12) | Points: 0.57 (+0.24)
Builder sentiment declined for the second straight month according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo's latest Housing Market Index (HMI). The headline index dropped two points to 32 in June, marking another step down toward the post-pandemic lows seen in 2023. All three components of the index moved lower: Current sales conditions fell two points to 35 Sales expectations for the next 6 months dipped to 40 Buyer traffic dropped to 21 Persistent affordability challenges—namely high mortgage rates and tariff-related material costs—remain major headwinds. As builders adapt, many are turning to price cuts and incentives to attract buyers. In fact, the share of builders reporting price reductions climbed to 37% in June, the highest since NAHB began tracking the data monthly in 2022. The average price cut held steady at 5%. Incentives were also widespread, with 62% of builders reporting some form of sales sweetener, up slightly from 61% in May. Despite the gloomy headline, it's worth noting that the market continues to be highly sensitive to any shift in rate expectations or material costs. As the broader economic picture evolves, builder sentiment may yet rebound—but for now, confidence remains historically low.
After a Memorial Day-induced lull, mortgage application activity rebounded sharply last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. Both purchase and refinance demand climbed to their highest levels in over a month, with the composite index rising 12.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis. “Coming out of the Memorial Day holiday, mortgage applications increased to the highest level in over a month, driven by growth in both purchase and refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding the economy, homebuyers seem to be taking advantage of loosening housing inventory in certain markets.” Refinance applications jumped 16% on the week and are now 28% higher than the same week last year. Purchase apps rose 10% week-over-week and are now running 20% above 2024 levels, marking a continuation of the strong year-over-year gains seen in recent reports. There are only 2 other weeks with higher purchase index readings going back to May 2023, and they were only barely higher. It should be noted that refi index, while not officially seasonally adjusted does include a smoothing adjustment for holiday weeks. Last week's data noted a Memorial Day adjustment, one that is not present in the current week's data. Because certain holidays fall on a different day of the week, adjusting for them is an imperfect science. In all likelihood, if we could completely remove seasonality and holiday effects, last week's refi index would have been stronger and the present week would have shown a much smaller increase.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey showed a pullback in mortgage applications, with rates dipping slightly after a three-week climb. The week’s numbers were also affected by the Memorial Day holiday, contributing to larger unadjusted declines. Still, the broader trend remains intact, with purchase demand continuing to outperform last year despite short-term rate volatility. “Most mortgage rates moved lower last week, with the 30-year fixed rate declining to 6.92 percent and staying in the 6.8 to 7 percent range since April,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. He noted that purchase applications remain 18 percent higher than the same week last year, driven in part by a modest rise in FHA activity. Meanwhile, refinance activity fell again, and the average refi loan size dropped to the lowest level since July 2024, suggesting borrowers are still holding out for better rates. Seasonally adjusted refinance applications fell 4 percent from the previous week, while purchase apps also declined 4 percent. On an unadjusted basis, both categories dropped by 15 percent, though the year-over-year numbers remain solid: purchases are up 18 percent and refis are up 42 percent versus this time in 2024. Mortgage Rate Summary:
