November 06 2024

In today's weekly mortgage application survey from the MBA, the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate only rose from 6.73 to 6.81%.  Meanwhile, daily average rates are already back over 7%.  Any way you slice it, rates have been rising quickly and the fallout is completely unsurprising when it comes to refinance applications. For context, here's how the past year fits in the bigger picture: Refinance applications wax and wane with interest rates.  The present environment is particularly restrained by the fact that so many people refinanced to such low rates in 2020-2022.  At the moment, the only group of borrowers with a rate-based refinance incentive are those who purchased or refinanced in late 2023 when rates were near 8%. Purchase applications are much more even-keeled, but also not loving the current rate/affordability environment. Other highlights from this week's survey: Refinances accounted for 39.9% of total applications, down from 43.1% last week Average loan size fell below $300k FHA loans were 15.5% of total vs 16.4% last week VA loans were 12.5% of total vs 14.6% last week Conventional rates were 6.81 up from 6.73 vs jumbo rates at 6.98 (up from 6.77... a much bigger jump) ARM rates fell from 6.20 to 6.05, but upfront costs increased from 0.59 to 0.84.

October 23 2024

Housing was chugging right along in early 2020, then covid happened.  Housing experienced lots of unexpected volatility with the most important development being a huge increase in demand and prices... at first. Once rates began skyrocketing (relatively) and the frenzy began to subside, home sales numbers tanked to the weakest levels since the Great Financial Crisis by the end of 2022. They've been drifting and bouncing around near those same levels ever since. Bigger picture for context: In other words, this data series isn't worth too much discussion until it exits this holding pattern. For those determined to pick out potentially interesting anecdotes, feel free to sort through the following: Prices rose 3.0% year over year.  It's the 15th straight month of increases Inventory has been growing faster than sales have been falling First time buyers accounted for 26% of total, matching the all-time low, but not a crazy drop from 2023's average of 32% All cash sales accounted for 30%, up from 26% last month.

October 23 2024

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) keeps track of applications for purchase and refi mortgages every week.  Purchase apps are slower moving, less responsive to rates, and generally bouncing along the lowest levels in more than 20 years since the end of 2023.  As such, we'll forget about them and move on to refi applications which have been far more interesting. This week's index fell to 672.6 from 734.6 last week.  That's a big drop and it follows several other big drops, largely undoing the surge seen after the recent rate rally.   But everything is relative.  The chart above leaves us with the impression of a big crash following a big surge.  If either move looks big, it's only because the baseline of the past 2 years has been the lowest, flattest pace seen in refi apps since 1999-2000.  In the bigger picture, it was a barely noticeable uptick that has fallen back to the muted trend. The small uptick was unsurprising given that a vast majority of loans still had rates substantially lower than the lowest lows of the past few months.  The correction back to lower levels is unsurprising given that rates have quickly surged back to the late July highs.  As such, don't be surprised to see another reasonably big downtick next week. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]