April 30 2024

Home price increases continued to accelerate in February even as interest rates also moved higher. Both the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices and the Housing Market Index (HMI) produced by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) showed annual price growth in the 7 percent range. Case-Shiller’s U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a non-seasonally adjusted 6.4 percent annual gain in February, compared to a 6.0 percent rise the previous month. The 10-City and 20-City Composites rose 8.0 percent and 7.3 percent respectively, up from 7.4 percent and 6.6 percent increases in January. San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year appreciation among the 20 cities at 11.4 percent followed by Chicago and Detroit, each posting 8.9 percent growth.  Portland still holds the lowest position at 2.2 percent. The three non-seasonally adjusted indices posted monthly gains for the first time since November. The National Index rose 0.6 percent, the 20-City was up 0.9 percent, and the 10-City Composite grew 1.0 percent.  After seasonal adjustment, the increases were 0.4 percent for the National Index and 0.6 percent for each of the composites.   “U.S. home prices continued their drive higher,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Our National Composite rose by 6.0 percent in January, the fastest annual rate since 2022.   For the third consecutive month, all cities reported increases in annual prices, with  four currently at all-time highs: San Diego, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., and New York. On a seasonal adjusted basis, our National, 10- and 20- City Composite indices continue to break through previous all-time highs set last year.”

April 24 2024

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell back for the first time in three weeks during the week ended Aril 19 as interest rates continued to rise.  The Index declined 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier and was 2.0 percent lower before adjustment. The Refinance Index decreased 6.0 percent from the previous week and was 3.0 percent higher than the same week in 2023. The refinance share of applications was also down, declining to 30.8 percent from 32.1 percent the previous week. [refiappschart] The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1.0 percent, the fifth decline in the last six weeks. The unadjusted Purchase Index did increase fractionally but was 15 percent lower than during the same week one year ago. [purchaseappschart] “Mortgage rates continued to move higher last week, reaching their highest levels since late 2023 and putting a damper on applications activity. The 30-year fixed rate increased for the third consecutive week to 7.24 percent, the highest since November 2023,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “ Purchase applications declined, as home buyers delayed their purchase decisions due to strained affordability and low supply. T he ARM share of applications increased to 7.6 percent, consistent with the upward trend in rates, as buyers look to reduce their potential monthly payments.”

April 23 2024

Existing home sales posted strong gains in February while sales of new homes slipped slightly. In March each category switched directions. The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development said newly constructed homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000 compared to 668,000 in February while the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) reported that existing home sales fell from a rate of 4.38 million units the prior month to 4.19 million. The increase in new home sales put those transactions up 8.8 percent compared to February and 8.3 percent higher than the March 2023 pace. Sales of previously owned single-family homes, townhouses, condos, and cooperative apartments were down 4.3 percent and 3.7 percent compared to the two earlier periods. [newhomesall] Existing single-family home sales also declined 4.3 percent in March to a 3.97-million-unit sales pace while condo and cooperative apartment sales were down 4.9 percent to 390,000 units.  Single-family sales were 2.8 percent and multi-family sales were 11.4 percent lower year-over-year. New home sales rose by 10,000 units from February to 67,000 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. Analysts polled by Trading Economics had expected new home sales to remain at February’s 668,000 level and had expected a smaller 2.2 percent decline in existing home sales to 4.2 million units. The inventory of new homes remains healthy with 477,000 unsold homes , an estimated 8.3-month supply at the current rate of sales and a monthly increase of 5.7 percent. The number of existing homes available for sale did increase by 4.7 percent to 1.11 million units but remains anemic at a 3.2-month supply.