August 01 2025

Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller released the latest update on home price appreciation this week. Actually, in the current case, it's more like home price depreciation (at least in month over month terms). This is a bit confusing because average prices were higher versus the previous month, but that is virtually always true at this time of year.  Seasonal adjustments are very useful for data like home prices (which have a reliable cadence that follows the typical homebuying seasons).  It's after adjusting for seasonality that we see emerging signs of weakness.  FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) May: −0.2%; April was revised from −0.4% to −0.3% YoY: +2.8% from May 2024 to May 2025 Monthly figures varied regionally: Middle Atlantic showed the steepest fall at −0.8%, while West South Central and New England saw modest gains of +0.3%. All nine census divisions remain positive YoY, ranging from +0.6% to +5.9%. Case‑Shiller National Index (unadjusted) YoY: +2.3% in May, down from +2.7% in April MoM (raw): +0.4% MoM (seasonally adjusted): −0.3% This marks the smallest annual national gain since July 2023 and the third consecutive monthly decline in seasonally adjusted data. Seasonally Adjusted Comparison Table: FHFA vs Case‑Shiller (May 2025) Index MoM (SA) YoY FHFA HPI −0.2% +2.8% Case‑Shiller −0.3% +2.3%

July 24 2025

The latest New Home Sales report (released today) shows a slight uptick in June after last month’s sharp drop. The seasonally‑adjusted annual sales pace rose to 627,000. This represents a modest +0.6% gain from May’s revised 623,000, but remains ‑6.6% below the June 2024 level of 671,000.  For all practical purposes, the pave of sales has been relentlessly sideways and stable for more than 2 years--even if there's been a bit of volatility at times. Regional Breakdown (Sales, June 2025) South: +5.1% MoM (driving national gain) Midwest: +6.3% MoM Northeast: ‑27.6% MoM West: ‑8.4% MoM Market Inventory & Pricing Homes for sale: 511,000 units (+1.2% from May; +8.5% YoY) Months’ supply: 9.8 months (highest since November 2022) Median sales price: $401,800 (‑4.9% MoM; ‑2.9% YoY) Average sales price: $501,000 (‑2.0% MoM; +1.1% YoY) Big Picture Takeaway New home sales rose modestly in June but remain well below last year’s levels, held back by elevated mortgage rates (~7%) and excess inventory. The housing market shows signs of cooling, with the median price slipping—providing some relief for buyers, though mortgage costs continue to constrain demand.

July 23 2025

Two months ago, existing home sales hit a five-month low. Last month’s report showed a minor rebound. This month’s update, released July 23, shows a return to weakness. Sales declined 2.7% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.93 million. That leaves activity just above the recent low and still 25% below long-term norms. Year-over-year, sales were unchanged nationally. As has been and continues to be the case, zooming out on the same chart results in an entirely different impression of the home resale market. Sales levels have hovered near 75% of pre-pandemic norms for three years now. “The record high median home price highlights how American homeowners’ wealth continues to grow—a benefit of homeownership,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “High mortgage rates are causing home sales to remain stuck at cyclical lows.” Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, June 2025) Region Sales (annual rate) MoM Change Median Price YoY Change Northeast 460,000 -8.0% $543,300 +4.2% Midwest 950,000 -4.0% $337,600 +3.4% South 1.81 million -2.2% $374,500 +0.3% West 710,000 +1.4% $636,100 +1.0%