July 18 2025

Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as rates moved higher, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index fell 10.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 11, reversing much of the prior week’s gain. “Mortgage rates rose last week following higher Treasury yields, which weighed on both purchase and refinance demand,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Refinance activity declined, and purchase applications fell to their lowest level since May.” Refinance applications fell 7% from the previous week but remain roughly 25% higher than the same week one year ago. Purchase applications declined 12% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unadjusted index increased 11% week-over-week and is still about 13% higher than 2024 levels, reflecting a modest improvement in year-over-year comparisons despite recent volatility. The average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.82%—up slightly from the prior week—while points held steady or edged lower depending on loan type. Mortgage Rate Summary: Loan Type Rate Change Points Change 30yr Fixed 6.82% +0.03 0.62 0.00 15yr Fixed 6.11% +0.05 0.66 −0.01 Jumbo 30yr 6.81% +0.03 0.39 −0.01 FHA 6.55% +0.02 0.74 −0.02 5/1 ARM 6.01% +0.02 0.58 −0.02

July 18 2025

Builders are placing their better days in the future according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo's latest Housing Market Index (HMI). Buoyed by longer-run expectations, the headline builder confidence index rose one point to 33, but remained deep in pessimistic territory, marking the 15th consecutive month below the key threshold of 50. Underlying components of the index were mixed: Current sales conditions rose one point to 36 Sales expectations for the next 6 months climbed 3 points to 43  Buyer traffic slipped one point to 20 High mortgage rates, elevated construction costs, and persistent affordability challenges continue to weigh on builder confidence. In response, many builders are offering concessions to attract hesitant buyers. The share of builders reporting price reductions rose to 38% in July, the highest since NAHB began monthly tracking in 2022. The average price cut remained at 5%. Sales incentives remained widespread as well, with 62% of builders reporting some form of incentive—unchanged from June. While the small uptick in sentiment may reflect cautious optimism in certain segments of the market, the overall outlook remains subdued. Builders continue to face significant headwinds, and buyer traffic is still near post-pandemic lows.

July 18 2025

The latest Residential Construction report from the Census Bureau showed a mixed bag for June, with a modest gain in overall housing starts driven by a rebound in multifamily construction, while single-family activity continued to decline. Building permits were essentially flat, suggesting a pause in the momentum seen earlier this year. As usual, the market focuses most on building permits and housing starts, with the latter representing the beginning of actual construction activity. Total starts rose 5.2% to an annual pace of 1.321 million, up from a revised 1.256 million in May. The increase was entirely due to a sharp rebound in multifamily starts, which surged from 316k to 414k—more than reversing the previous month’s drop. In contrast, single-family starts fell 4.4% to 883k, marking the lowest level in 11 months. Building permits—a forward-looking indicator—were nearly unchanged, inching up from 1.393 million to 1.397 million. That masked a 3.7% decline in single-family permits, which dropped to 866k, while multifamily permits rose modestly from 444k to 478k. Meanwhile, housing completions fell sharply, down 13.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.314 million. That included a 12.5% decline in single-family completions, which dropped from 1.038 million to 908k.