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July 03 2024 Higher interest rates knocked mortgage application volume back last week. But, while purchase volume appears to lose ground year-over-year, refinancing activity is steadily improving compared to the same week in 2023. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier and rose 8.0 percent on an unadjusted basis. The Refinance Index was down 2.0 percent compared to the week ended June 20 and was 29.0 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 35.7 percent of total applications from 35.1 percent the previous week. [refiappschart] The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 3.0 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 7.0 percent compared with the previous week and was 12.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago. [purchaseappschart] “Mortgage rates moved higher last week, crossing the 7 percent mark, even as the latest inflation data has kept market expectations alive for a rate cut from the Fed later this year,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Purchase applications decreased the final full week of June, even as both new and existing inventories have increased over the past few months. Refinance activity also remains subdued – although there was a slight increase in applications for conventional refinance loans.”
June 26 2024 May turned out to be a dismal month for home sales. Sales of existing homes dipped a modest 0.7 percent from April, but new home sales fared far worse. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development report that sales of newly constructed single-family homes were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 619,000 units during the month. This is 11.3 percent below the sales level in April and down 16.5 percent compared to May 2023. However, April sales, originally estimated at 634,000 units, was upgraded to 698,000. Analysts had expected a better performance. Those polled by Econoday had a consensus forecast of 650,000 units. On a non-adjusted basis, 56,000 homes were sold during the month compared to 62,000 in April. Inventories continued to improve. At the end of May, there were 481,000 homes available for sale, nearly 13 percent more than a year earlier. The increase in availability is more apparent in the context of current sales. The inventory for May is projected to be a 9.3-month supply at the current sales rate. This is a 14.8 percent increase from April and 34.8 percent from a year earlier. The median price of a home sold in May was $417,400 compared to $421,200 in May of 2023. The average price rose, however, increasing from $495,800 to $520,000. May sales fell compared to the previous month in all four regions and rose year-over-year in only one. In the Northeast, sales plummeted 43.8 percent compared to both April and the prior May. Midwest sales were down 8.6 percent for the month but rose 12.2 percent on an annual basis. The South saw decreases of 12.0 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively, from the two earlier periods. Sales slowed by 4.5 percent in the West and were down 20.9 percent from May 2023.
June 26 2024 Slightly lower mortgage rates failed to impress potential borrowers last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, ticked up 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier but was down 10.0 percent before adjustment. The Refinance Index was essentially unchanged from the previous week and was 26.0 percent higher than the same week in 2023. Refinancing accounted for 35.1 percent of total applications compared to 35.2 percent the previous week. [refiappschart] The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index gained 2.0 percent from one week earlier. Applications were down 10.0 percent on an unadjusted basis and 13.0 percent lower than the level the same week one year ago. [purchaseappschart] Volume data includes an adjustment for the Juneteenth holiday. Mortgage rates were mostly lower last week, with the 30-year fixed rate declining slightly to 6.93 percent, the lowest level in more than three months,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Lower rates, however, were still not enough to entice refinance borrowers back, as most continue to hold mortgages with considerably lower rates. ” Added Kan, “Purchase applications did see a small increase after adjusting for the Juneteenth holiday. Government purchase loans, primarily FHA and VA, saw gains of more than 2 percent over the previous week, as homebuyers in those segments sought to take advantage of the recent rate relief.”
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