January 23 2026

Mortgage applications continued to ride the waves from last week's dip in rates, extending the surge that followed early-January rate volatility. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications rose 14.1% for the week ending January 16, adding to the prior week’s sharp increase. Refinance demand again led the way. The Refinance Index climbed 20% from the previous week and was 183% higher than the same week one year ago, marking the strongest weekly pace since September. The magnitude of the increase underscores the widely publicized (but oh so temporary) news that intraday 30yr fixed rates dipped just below 6% for the first time in years. “Mortgage rates declined further last week, driving another big week for refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “These movements prompted greater refinance activity from conventional and VA borrowers, with refinance applications accounting for more than 60 percent of total volume.” The rate rally was swift enough to spill over to purchase demand--a tall order in the world of mortgage apps. The Purchase Index rose 5% week-over-week, while unadjusted purchase applications increased 12% and were 18% higher than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of total applications increased to 61.9% from 60.2% the prior week. ARM share edged up to 7.1% . FHA share fell to 15.9% from 19.2%, while VA share increased slightly to 16.2%. USDA share was unchanged at 0.4%.

January 16 2026

Builder confidence slipped to start the year, with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) falling two points to 37 in January. The erasure of December’s modest gains doesn't really do much to change the broader picture: builder sentiment remains stuck in a holding pattern near its lowest levels, weighed down by the usual suspects of persistent affordability challenges and rising construction costs. The underlying components weakened across the board. The index measuring current sales conditions dipped one point to 41, while the gauge tracking prospective buyer traffic fell three points to 23—continuing to solidify its status in “low to very low” territory. Most notably, future sales expectations declined three points to 49, slipping below the breakeven level of 50 for the first time since September. “While the upper end of the housing market is holding steady, affordability conditions are taking a toll on the lower and mid-range sectors,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes. “Buyers are concerned about high home prices and mortgage rates, with down payments particularly challenging given elevated price-to-income ratios.” There was at least a partial offset on the rate front. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz pointed to a recent decline in mortgage rates to the lowest level in three years. However, most survey responses were collected before the announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, meaning any benefit from that policy action was largely not reflected in January’s results.

January 14 2026

Existing-home sales posted a notable year-end rebound in December, jumping 5.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.35 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). After adjusting for seasonal factors, December sales were the strongest in nearly three years, marking a broad-based improvement across all four regions. “2025 was another tough year for homebuyers, marked by record-high home prices and historically low home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, in the fourth quarter, conditions began improving, with lower mortgage rates and slower home price growth. December home sales, after adjusting for seasonal factors, were the strongest in nearly three years. The gains were broad-based, with all four major regions improving from the prior month.” Inventory tightened sharply during the month, reflecting typical winter seasonality. Total housing inventory fell to 1.18 million units , down 18.1% from November, though still 3.5% higher than a year ago. The months’ supply of unsold homes dropped to 3.3 months , down from 4.2 months in November. “Inventory levels remain tight,” Yun added. “With fewer sellers feeling eager to move, homeowners are taking their time deciding when to list or delist their homes. Similar to past years, more inventory is expected to come to market beginning in February.” Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, December 2025)