December 19 2025

The December National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) edged up one point to 39. This is the 3rd straight month of improvement in the index--a development that could be confused for something encouraging.  But the reality is that builder confidence is merely drifting along just barely above the lowest levels in more than a decade. This has been the case for more than 3 years now. Peeling back the layers shows familiar constraints, even if the numbers shuffled slightly. The index measuring current sales conditions rose one point to 42, while the gauge tracking prospective buyer traffic held steady at 26—still firmly in “low to very low” territory. Future sales expectations improved one point to 52, extending a three-month stretch above breakeven. “Market conditions remain challenging with two-thirds of builders reporting they are offering incentives to move buyers off the fence,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes. “Meanwhile, builders are contending with rising material and labor prices, as tariffs are having serious repercussions on construction costs.” Pricing pressure continues to do much of the heavy lifting. NAHB reports that 40% of builders cut home prices in December, marking the second consecutive month at or above that level. The average price reduction eased to 5%, down from 6% in November, while the use of sales incentives climbed to 67%—the highest share in the post-Covid period. Regionally, the three-month moving averages show a broad-based but still uneven improvement. The Northeast slipped to 47, while the Midwest strengthened to 43. The South rose to 36 and the West improved to 34, though both regions remain more acutely exposed to affordability pressures.

December 19 2025

Seasonally adjusted mortgage application activity declined 3.8% last week, according to MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 12. Unadjusted applications fell 5% from the prior week, reflecting a typical seasonal slowdown as the year draws to a close. The Refinance Index slipped 4% from the previous week but remains 86% higher than the same week one year ago, underscoring continued refinance interest as rates remain rangebound. Purchase activity also softened, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index down 3% from the prior week. On an unadjusted basis, purchase applications declined 7% week-over-week but are still running 13% above last year’s pace. “Mortgage rates inched up last week following the FOMC meeting, as investors interpreted the comments to signal that we are near the end of this rate cutting cycle. As a result, mortgage applications declined slightly,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Purchase application volume typically drops off quickly at the end of the year, and this shifts the mix of the business, with the refinance share reaching 59 percent last week, the highest level since September. However, refinance activity has remained mostly the same for the past month as rates continue to hold at around the same narrow range.” The refinance share of applications increased to 59.0% from 58.2% the previous week. ARM share rose to 7.2%. FHA share edged lower to 19.5%, while VA share increased to 16.6%. USDA share increased to 0.4%.

December 10 2025

Seasonally adjusted mortgage application activity rose 4.8% last week, according to MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 5. Unadjusted applications jumped 49% from the prior week, reflecting a rebound following the Thanksgiving-related slowdown. The Refinance Index surged 14% from the previous week and remains 88% higher than the same week one year ago—another strong year-over-year showing as borrowers respond to modest rate improvement, particularly in FHA products. Purchase activity was softer on a seasonally adjusted basis, slipping 2% from the prior week. Unadjusted purchase applications increased 32% week-over-week due to the holiday comparison and are running 19% above last year’s pace, supported by gradually improving affordability and inventory conditions. “Compared to the prior week’s data, which included an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday, mortgage application activity increased last week, driven by an uptick in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Conventional refinance applications were up almost 8 percent and government refinances were up 24 percent as the FHA rate dipped to its lowest level since September 2024. Conventional purchase applications were down for the week, but there was a 5 percent increase in FHA purchase applications as prospective homebuyers continue to seek lower downpayment loans. Overall purchase applications continued to run ahead of 2024’s pace as broader housing inventory and affordability conditions improve gradually.”